Can we move decisively away from fossil fuels by the year 2050? Yes, says physicist David MacKay, author of Sustainable Energy — Without the Hot Air, but only if we dial down the passion and use better arithmetic. MacKay believes this goal is technically feasible, and examines the options for achieving it, in his book—which has been endorsed by such usually differing interests as Royal Dutch Shell and Friends of Earth. A realistic assessment of energy policy alternatives requires that we abandon hyperbole and fixed agendas. MacKay’s project in the book is to set forth the numbers needed to make realistic trade-offs between different forms of energy and conservation methods.
MacKay says that he is neither for nor against any particular form of energy. Rather, he is “pro-arithmetic. I’m hoping that once people actually see the numbers, what we need to do will become self-evident.” Although it is possible to stop using fossil fuels by 2010, not every proposed approach is feasible. Attempting to do this solely through wind farms, for instance, is impractical. If you were to cover 10% of the United Kingdom (an area the size of Wales), you would generate only about 16 percent of daily average energy use. Meeting the full scope of the energy challenge means, says MacKay, that we “can’t say no to anything; indeed, they have to say yes to pretty much every form of alternative energy” (which include nuclear).
In this interview, MacKay comments on green marketing initiatives, which he says work only to the extent that “people don’t use numbers to examine what is being proposed”. He advocates the creation of a road map by each country based on the consensus of business leaders, engineers, and political leaders, “for what actually adds up, what actually can be accomplished, respecting the laws of physics, the laws of economics, and the financial and political reality.” His book is available in both bound form and as a free PDF download.